March 30, 2016: The 2016 Masters is a week away. Being the first of four majors, there is never enough evidence to establish clearly a strong lineup of contenders for this coveted tournament. Rory McIlroy has been good in patches, itching to add the only major missing from his collection of trophies.
Dustin Johnson is chasing a major victory like a mountaineer trying to summit the Everest in poor weather. It is difficult to imagine Johnson picking his first one in Augusta. (Latest Golf News)
Defending champion Jordan Spieth is learning some painful lessons in the transient nature of form. The loss of it for Spieth has been an enigma. After a dominant season on the tour, he is clearly struggling for rhythm and as unimaginable as it is, he does not look like a golfer that can defend his title.
Naturally, it isn’t easy to gaze through a crystal ball and dictate the real contenders next week at the Augusta National Golf Club.
Nonetheless, here is an attempt to try and narrow down our gaze and establish the top five contenders, come first Thursday in April.
# 5 Phil Mickelson
Leftie played solid this past week at the WGC – Dell Match Play event in Austin. He was in immaculate form off the tee and on the greens. Given his experience and pedigree at the Masters, it will be unwise to ignore his credentials there.
Besides, Mickelson is eager to nail a big prize and reaffirm his status as a premier golfer through his 40s. The five time major winner and three time Masters champion looks set to give the younger folk a run for their money.
Since 1995, Mickelson has enjoyed no less than 15 top ten finishes at the Masters, including those three famous victories. The fact that he was T2 last year and is seemingly back on song should make him a serious contender this year.
# 4 Rory McIlroy
The Northern Irishman has unfinished business this spring, needing as he does to complete his collection of major trophies. He has shown some really good touch in recent weeks, but has also suffered some serious damage on other days.
Perhaps the Masters is the right stage to inspire four good rounds out of the former world No.1
It will take a tremendous amount of focus for McIlroy to make it stick this week. While we know he can do it, will he be able to bring his A-game to Augusta and perform consistently enough to compete on Sunday? That is the question that many want answered next week.
McIlroy is joint second favourite with Jordan Spieth at 15-2. We are going out on a limb, keeping Spieth out of this conversation, but his recent form has been patchy and the pressures of being the defending champion will only add to his woes.
# 3 Adam Scott
The 2013 champion has been tweaking his short game, mindful of the impending ban on belly putters. Victories in the Honda Classic and WGC – Cadillac Championship brought him right into the middle of this conversation.
Scott seems hungry again after a period of mediocre results, making him a dangerous golfer in Augusta next week. Jason Day’s rise to the top of golf should also serve to provide the Aussie added motivation to play well and remain in the winning circle to keep up with his younger compatriot.
Scott is being offered at 11-1 odds, just marginally lower than Watson.
# 2 Bubba Watson
You ought to like the chances of two time winner Bubba Watson. The genial American knows exactly how it is done and is nearly untouchable if he gets going early at Augusta. He got the better of a quality field at the Hero World Challenge in December and the Northern Trust Open in February.
His knowledge of the course and his familiarity with the Green Jacket will help Watson take a relaxed approach next week. He really has nothing left to prove in Augusta and if he turns up at the top or thereabouts on the leaderboard midway through the tournament, it will be very difficult to stop his surge.
At 10-1 Watson certainly is worth a bet, considering his consistency at Augusta and his recent form.
# 1 Jason Day
The law of averages might catch up with Day, but he is clearly the top dog right now in golf. Victories at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and WGC Dell Match Play underline his rich vein of form in recent weeks. Question is, can he keep his run going through the all-important week in Augusta. It is more than likely that Day will finish well in the Masters, and contend for honours.
Let us also not forget that Day was runner-up in 2011, but that was a different version of the Aussie. He is a far more confident golfer, especially since winning the PGA Championship at the Whistling Straits last year.
The betting algorithms seem to like him too. Day is listing at 13-2 (Bovada), a couple of notches over the 15-2 being offered on Jordan Spieth and Rory McIlroy
Outside bets – Charl Schwartzel, Zach Johnson, Louis Oosthuizen, maybe Hideki Matsuyama or perhaps even Tony Finau. Watch this space.
